Tokyo-Beijing Island Spat Puts Washington in Bind - Wall Street Journal (blog)

By Julian E. Barnes

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U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, third from left, and China’s Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission general Xu Caihou, center, attend a group photo in Beijing on Sept. 18.

U.S. defense officials argue it is unlikely the American military will be dragged into a fight in the East China Sea between China and Japan, and the crisis will be resolved diplomatically.

But officials are worried the tensions could over the long term destabilize the region. At stops in Tokyo and Beijing this week, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has urged the two sides to negotiate hoping that levelheadedness can calm an unruly situation and bring it to a peaceful resolution.

Analysts cautioned the U.S. must be careful in how it handles the crisis. If it forces, or appears to force, Japan to retreat it could weaken its major ally in the region and inadvertently strengthen China’s position.

“If we forced Tokyo to take an unfavorable deal with Beijing in order to prevent conflict â€" even as the Chinese forces are dramatically increasing their operations and firepower around Japan â€" it would send a message of weakness to entire the region,” said Michael Green, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

U.S. defense officials reject that notion â€" and believe that a peaceful resolution can be found that leaves neither China nor Japan weaker.

“No one should draw any conclusions about relative power gains among countries in the region based on these disputes,” said a defense official.

The U.S. has a treaty commitment, under the mutual defense agreement with Japan, to help defend all areas administered by Japan. That includes the Senkaku islands, which are administered by Japan, but also claimed by China, which calls them the Diaoyu.

The treaty would not require the U.S. to intervene to aid Japan in a pre-emptive military action. And even if Japanese ships were attacked, the alliance would not force Japan and the U.S. to mount a counter attack on China, said Mr. Green

But Professor Thomas Berger of Boston University said it is possible to imagine a scenario where the U.S. could be backed into aiding a military response by Japan. If Japanese ships confront Chinese fishermen, for example, Chinese Maritime Surveillance ships might then intervene, and potentially PLA Navy ships.

“At that point, the United States would be forced to intervene militarily,” said Mr. Berger.

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U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta meets with Japan’s Minister of Defense Satoshi Morimoto on Sept. 17 in Tokyo.

Mr. Panetta said Monday that the U.S. position on the security alliance was “well known” but he declined to spell out explicitly that the U.S. would defend Japanese claims to Senkaku.

Instead he has repeatedly emphasized that U.S. has a strictly neutral stance to the territorial dispute.

Mr. Green said that while urging diplomatic solutions is fine, the U.S. should not try to play a more robust mediating role.

“Japan is our ally,” he said. “It is critical that U.S. policy encourage diplomacy without selling out an ally in the face of a more assertive China.”

Mr. Berger said he was concerned that Japan could underreact to the confrontation â€" especially if it senses that the U.S. does not want to back Tokyo in the conflict.

“U.S. interests in the region might wind up being damaged even more in the long run than they would be if the confrontation intensifies,” Mr. Berger said. “Moreover, if China has effectively asserted itself using these kinds of tactics against Japan, how are South East Asian countries, especially the Philippines, likely to act?”

To prevent the outcome, Mr. Berger said, the U.S. should modify its “overly evenhanded approach” and back Japan.