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Thursday, July 19, 2012

METALS-Copper gains on China hopes, tracks equities - Reuters

Thu Jul 19, 2012 1:05pm EDT

  * China house prices up in June, shows policy traction      * U.S. existing home sales falls in June, jobless claims rise     (Adds closing prices)      By Eric Onstad and Maytaal Angel      LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - Copper hit a two-week high on Thursday,  bolstered by expectations that China could announce further monetary easing  measures in the second half and by strong corporate earnings which led global  equity markets higher, boosting investor sentiment.      Equities, seen by some as a proxy for global growth, were higher in the U.S.  and Europe, offsetting some recent gloomy economic data and boosting copper.         China's Premier Wen Jiabao said the government needed to step up efforts to  create more jobs given that the job market could turn for the worse. The  comments sparked hopes for more policy easing, with some in the market betting  on announcements this weekend.       Limiting gains in copper though, the euro weakened versus the dollar as  Germany warned Spain's financial troubles were far from over and its government  should be ultimately responsible for European aid to its banks.       A weak euro makes dollar-priced metals costly for European investors.       Three-months copper on the London Metal Exchange touched an intraday  peak of $7,813 per tonne, its highest since July 3. It ended at $7,735, up 1.28  percent on the day, and heading for its second straight week of gains.      The metal is up just 2 percent this year however, having dropped sharply in  the second quarter amid concerns over Europe's debt crisis, slower growth in  China and a stalling recovery in the U.S.       "The premier said some positive things but I'm not convinced they're going  to do a huge amount until after the Chinese new year when the new premier  starts," said Citi analyst David Thurtell.      "I think at $7,800 you'll see (copper) producers selling, which will cap the  rally. The fact that Shanghai stocks are rising, premiums are falling and  Chinese production has stepped up suggests there's reasonable amounts of metal  still in China."      China accounts for some 40 percent of global copper consumption.      Also weighing on copper, U.S. data out earlier showed existing home sales  dropped 4.5 percent last month, compared with forecasts for a 1.1 percent rise.  Meanwhile U.S. jobless claims rose last week to levels consistent with only  modest jobs growth.        Investors kept their hopes pinned on China, however, mindful of the  premier's comments and of Wednesday's data which showed China's home prices  broke eight straight months of decline to rise in June.       "The markets seem to be focusing on expectations that the Chinese  authorities will now accelerate policies to rev up their economy. However, we  have our doubts that renewed government 'pump-priming' is going to do the trick,  especially when most of China's trading partners remain mired in recession or  near recessionary levels," said INTL FCStone in a note.                    INVESTMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE      Chinese traders hope infrastructure investments in the next few months will  prop up demand. According to media reports, China's big four state banks doubled  their pace of lending in the first half of July from a month ago in part due to  a pickup in borrowing by government-led investment schemes.       In physical markets in China however, traders said copper sales were much  lower compared with a year ago.      "In the copper downstream markets, there is a slight pick-up in state grid  construction, but these are still too weak now to boost overall demand," said an  analyst with a trading firm.      Traders added that lead is one of the strongest base metals in the Chinese  market now due to a surge in battery production this year.      "From the statistics we've gathered, China's battery sales this year up to  the end of May rose by 12 percent -- a big boost to lead sales. Despite this,  prices have been pressured by macroeconomic uncertainties," said an analyst with  an international trader.       LME lead, which has shed 6 percent so far this year, ended up 1.02  percent at $1,929.50 a tonne, while nickel dipped 0.31 percent to close  at $16,050 a tonne.      Analyst Andrew Keen at HSBC in London cut his 2012 forecast for nickel by 10  percent to $18,030 a tonne, but said the market may temporarily tighten later in  the year.      "We still expect the market to remain in marginal surplus of 8,000 tonnes,  but now believe that nickel production cuts, including Chinese NPI (nickel pig  iron) and delays in the ramp-up of new projects may actually push the market in  a temporary deficit in 4Q12 or 2013," he said in a note.      The global nickel market was in supply surplus by 27,000 tonnes in the first  five months of 2012, the latest monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International  Nickel Study Group showed.       Aluminium ended up 1.83 percent at $1,944 a tonne, zinc   increased 0.96 percent to close at $1,887 and tin climbed 1.57 percent  to end at $19,095 a tonne.    Metal Prices at 1442 GMT   Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T    Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2009   Ytd Pct                                                                move    COMEX Cu       352.80        5.45     +1.57     334.65      5.42    LME Alum      1943.00       34.00     +1.78    2230.00    -12.87    LME Cu        7725.00       88.00     +1.15    7375.00      4.75    LME Lead      1929.00       19.00     +0.99    2432.00    -20.68    LME Nickel   16050.00      -50.00     -0.31   18525.00    -13.36    LME Tin      19090.00      290.00     +1.54   16950.00     12.63    LME Zinc      1886.50       17.50     +0.94    2560.00    -26.31    SHFE Alu     15615.00       50.00     +0.32   17160.00     -9.00    SHFE Cu*     56230.00      410.00     +0.73   59900.00     -6.13    SHFE Zin     14830.00       45.00     +0.30   21195.00    -30.03   ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper   * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN   SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07      (Editing by William Hardy and James Jukwey)  

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