(Updates with closing prices throughout.)
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- While the Chinese government is vowing not to spend as it did during the 2008 global financial crisis, the most accurate analysts say the benchmark index for the nation's stocks will keep rising.
The Shanghai Composite Index is poised to gain 15 percent from yesterday's close to 2,750 by year-end as slowing inflation allows the government to loosen monetary policy and banks to lend more to companies, according to Beijing Gao Hua Securities Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s partner in China and the firm with the most correct predictions for yuan-denominated A shares in the two years to January 2012, based on Bloomberg Rankings.
The benchmark stock index has climbed 7.9 percent this year on speculation the government will accelerate measures to boost the world's second-biggest economy after gross domestic product grew at the slowest quarterly pace since 2009. The government said on May 29 it has no plan to introduce stimulus on the scale of measures in 2008, when policy makers unveiled a fiscal package of 4 trillion yuan ($629 billion).
"We remain positive on the market this year," Wang Hanfeng, China strategist at Gao Hua, said in an e-mailed response to questions. "With inflation easing, there is a shift towards policy loosening which will help improve the liquidity situation and support the valuation expansion of A shares."
Slowing inflation leaves room for the government to stimulate the economy as policy makers turn their attention to growth, said Wang. A statistics bureau report on May 11 showed China's consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in April, below the 3.6 percent rate in March and the government's full-year target of 4 percent. The economy grew 8.1 percent in the first quarter, the least since the three months ending June 30, 2009.
Brokerage Targets
The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.5 percent to 2,372.23 at today's close. It lost 1 percent this month, compared with a 13 percent plunge in Brazil's Bovespa Index, the 6.7 percent drop for the BSE India Sensitive Index and the 11 percent slump in Russia's Micex Index.
Gao Hua's stock recommendations on Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co. were the most accurate based on an analysis of recommendations on 135 A shares from more than 400 analysts at 43 brokerages. The analysts were ranked according to the accuracy of their estimates between Jan. 1, 2010 and Jan. 9, 2012.
Most Accurate
Gao Hua had the highest accuracy rate at 60 percent with 55 correct recommendations out of 88, followed by Capital Securities Corp. and UBS AG, according to Bloomberg Rankings. Masterlink Securities Corp., Morgan Stanley, China International Capital Corp., HuaChuang Securities, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG rounded out the top 10 brokerages.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities Co., based in Shanghai, said on April 24 that the Chinese index may rally another 30 percent this year, led by banks and developers. Guotai Junan Securities Co., also located in Shanghai, forecasts the gauge may hit 2,800 by the end of the second quarter. Morgan Stanley and Guotai Junan advised buying stocks before the Shanghai gauge's last bear market ended in July 2010.
Wang has an overweight allocation for stocks in the insurance, property and construction material industries, suggesting investors should hold more of the shares than are represented in benchmark indexes. Gaohua cut the coal industry to neutral from overweight, he said.
Index Valuations
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