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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Brent crude holds above $119 as China offsets Europe, US - Reuters

Tue May 1, 2012 1:15am EDT

* China's April PMI at 53.3 vs 53.1 in March

* Spain in recession, US economic growth appears to slow

* U.S. crude stocks to post 6th weekly rise - poll (Adds J.P. Morgan Brent-WTI forecasts, updates prices)

By Florence Tan

SINGAPORE, May 1 (Reuters) - Brent crude held steady above $119 a barrel on Tuesday, with an an expansion in China manufacturing helping to counter gloomier economic outlooks from the euro zone and the United States that could depress fuel demand.

China's vast factory sector grew at a slightly higher rate in April from the previous month, a sign that its economy may have bottomed out in the first quarter. The world's second-largest oil consumer is expected to account for nearly half of global incremental oil demand this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

"China is still in an expansionary phase and we saw a slight tick-up on the month," said Ben Le Brun, a Sydney-based market analyst at OptionXpress. "That will offset that negativity we saw filtered through from Europe last night."

"We may see a bit of a delayed reaction as prices are not moving much in the Asian session."

Brent crude for June edged 18 cents lower to $119.29 a barrel by 0430 GMT. The front-month contract fell nearly 3 percent in April, its first loss in four months.

U.S. crude for June was down 10 cents at $104.77 a barrel after posting its first fall in seven sessions on Monday.

But debt woes in the euro zone continued to cast a pall over the region's economies, with Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the euro zone, sinking into recession in the first quarter.

Economists said spending cuts aimed at meeting strict EU deficit limits, together with a reeling bank sector, would delay any return to growth until late this year or beyond.

The U.S. economy appeared to down shift as it entered the second quarter, with consumers increasing their spending only modestly last month and a gauge of business activity in the Midwest falling sharply in April.

"We are forecasting a slowing in momentum in the U.S. manufacturing sector, but we believe this will be a consolidation rather than a sharp loss in momentum as was seen in 2011," ANZ analysts led by Mark Pervan said in a note.

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Higher OPEC output in April as well as analysts' expectations for a sixth weekly rise in U.S. crude inventories due in part to rising domestic production could also weigh on prices.

OPEC's April output was at its highest since 2008 as extra crude from Iraq and Saudi Arabia has helped cover for tighter sanctions on Iran, whose own oil output has hit its lowest in two decades, a Reuters survey found.

"Unless OPEC curtails production - which we see as unlikely in today's elevated price environment - inventories should build above-normal through third quarter," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Hussein Allidina said in a note.

"A diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions or a coordinated SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) release, both of which are increasingly possible, may also present additional downside."

J.P. Morgan revised down its 2012 forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices by $3 to $108 a barrel as it expects the spread between Brent and WTI to widen sharply at the end of the year on refinery maintenance.

"We expect the spread to be very volatile, pushing above $15 a barrel at the end of the year as the three-month-long maintenance at the BP Whiting refinery kicks in just ahead of the expansion of the Seaway pipeline," analysts led by Lawrence Eagles said.

They added that a Seaway pipeline oil flow reversal in mid-May will first narrow the spread to $6 a barrel or less.

The spread between Brent and WTI CL-LCO1=R was at $14.52 a barrel on Tuesday after settling at $14.60.

U.S. gasoline prices are also under pressure as concerns about a supply shortfall eased after Delta Air Lines Inc announced that it will buy a Pennsylvania oil refinery from ConocoPhillips for $150 million. (Editing by Ed Davies and Edwina Gibbs)


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