By RUPERT HAMMOND-CHAMBERS
An important shift in U.S. policy toward Taiwanâ€"and Chinaâ€"is underway. On Friday, the White House released a letter to Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas pledging to decide "a near-term course of action on how to address Taiwan's fighter gap, including through the sale to Taiwan of an undetermined number of new US-made fighter aircraft."
President Obama is making amends. Last year, his administration imperiled the island nation's deterrent against mainland China by refusing to sell it F-16s, though it did sell it upgrade kits for existing F-16s. In October, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta let slip that Beijing had received a "heads-up" regarding Washington's decision. The administration apparently believed, as a Feb. 15 letter from the Pentagon to Sen. Cornyn stated, that "the F-16 upgrade effectively meets Taiwan's current needs."
But Taipei's airpower needs have changed over the past two decades as Beijing has fielded advanced fighters, so an F-16 upgrade on its own is only a part of the response. Adm. Robert Willard, former head of U.S. Pacific Command, recently testified before the Senate: "I'm not sure that in the longest term [the F-16 upgrade program] is going to meet all [of Taiwan's] needs in the aviation area."
As Washington's upgrade of Taiwan's existing 145 F-16s begins, Taipei will be able to field only 75 usable modern fighters at any given time between 2016 and 2022. The planes that need to be upgraded have to be taken offlineâ€"and in the absence of new F-16s, they leave a sizeable hole in Taiwan and North Asia's security.
The island nation urgently needs more such fighters to deter China's expansion.
Sen. Cornyn has rightly expressed concerns and he's not alone among American policy makers. He co-authored legislation with Sen. Robert Menendez (D., New Jersey) called the Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act, which would require the Obama administration to sell no fewer than 66 new F-16s to Taiwan. The bill has yet to pass the Senate, but the good news is that it may be considered in the House of Representatives later this spring.
These initiatives, both from the U.S. executive and legislature, should rectify the signals Washington has been sending Beijing, especially Mr. Panetta's October admission that he pre-notified the mainland about Taiwan's F-16 upgrades. That move reneged on one of President Reagan's "Six Assurances" to Taipei in 1982, when the U.S. promised it would not confer with China before selling arms to Taiwan. Just as bad, it sent a clear message to the Communist Party that Taiwan's airpower would not be bolstered. Since China earlier threatened unspecified penalties should the U.S. go ahead with such a sale, it appeared that Beijing stared Washington down.
But it turns out President Obama's short-term calculus for appeasement was itself wrong. He feared a big response from China, but when Mr. Panetta did announce the F-16 upgrade, Beijing did nothing.
A new report by the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council and the Washington-based Project 2049 Institute, entitled "Chinese Reactions to Taiwan Arms Sales," questions the extent to which China is prepared to jeopardize its overall relationship with America. The report concludes that while the mainland has loudly protested past arms sales, its retaliations have no substantial long-term effects. China is unlikely to challenge any fundamental U.S. interests in response to future releases of military articles or services to Taiwan.
Washington can and must abide by its commitment to Taipei under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and in the process build a bulwark against China's military expansion. America's stated policy in the Asia-Pacific includes deploying its own fifth-generation fighters (like the F-22 and F-35), as well as helping its allies upgradeâ€"and addâ€"fourth-generation planes like the F-16.
If it doesn't offer new F-16s to Taiwan, the U.S. will weaken its own position in Asia. The gap left by Taiwan in North Asian security may have to be filled by American pilots and airplanes, while the U.S. defense budget is facing nearly $1 trillion in cuts over the coming decade.
Mr. Obama's recently announced pivot to Asia was always a gamble in the midst of big defense cuts. The U.S. is required to defend a weak Taiwan under the 1979 act, but what if it isn't left with adequate resources? This is true of all of America's obligations in the region. There is no point in building capacity in some parts of Asia while ignoring others. It invites Chinese adventurism in the weakest areas.
At least for this part of Asia, the best solution is to have Taiwan pilots piloting Taiwanese F-16s and patrolling the airspace over the Taiwan Strait. So, as welcome as the White House's latest commitment is, there is an urgency to sell them these fighters as soon as possible. If months go by with no action to back up Friday's message, it will raise a broader question on the substance and commitment of Mr. Obama's Asia "re-balancing."
Mr. Hammond-Chambers is president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.
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