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Monday, April 30, 2012

Dissident Case Clouds US's Beijing Visit - Wall Street Journal

WASHINGTONâ€"The White House scolded China on its human-rights record on Monday as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepared to depart for Beijing on a mission that holds the potential to redefine the Obama administration's relations with China.

President Barack Obama upheld his administration's broad silence on the issue of Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng, who late last week disappeared after escaping from house arrest, spurring widespread speculation that he is being harbored by American officials in Beijing.

"Obviously, I'm aware of the press reports on the situation in China, but I'm not going to make a statement on the issue," Mr. Obama told reporters at the White House. "What I would like to emphasize is that every time we meet with China, the issue of human rights comes up."

For Mrs. Clintonâ€"who positioned China at the top of her agenda after becoming Washington's chief diplomat three years ago and has been a lead architect of U.S. efforts to strengthen its position in East Asiaâ€"this week's mission has emerged as the most delicate of her career. It could set the tone for U.S.-China relations for years, said current and former U.S. officials.

The question of whether Mr. Chen is under the protection of U.S. diplomats in Beijingâ€"and what the U.S. and China will do about itâ€"throws new tensions into one of the globe's closely watched bilateral relations. The two capitals are already struggling to find common ground on issues ranging from Iran's nuclear program to the international effort to unseat Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Mrs. Clinton's meetings on Thursday and Friday with her Chinese counterparts, as part of the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue, are further complicated by the elections and political transitions taking place in both Washington and Beijing this year. These domestic considerations could risk undercutting Mrs. Clinton's ability to fashion an ending to Mr. Chen's saga as well as to addressing other core strategic issues, the current and former U.S. officials worry.

If Mr. Chen's situation isn't resolved this week, the U.S. and China could be locked into a standoff over his status, these people worry.

"The stakes are very high primarily because of the transition years in both countries," said Chris Johnson, who served as a top China analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency before retiring in April. "Now, this has probably become the most important test of the China relationship in the Obama administration's entire tenure."

On Monday, the Obama administration and Beijing both maintained their strict policies of refusing to discuss Mr. Chen's status or any negotiations underway to end his apparent stay under U.S. protection.

Behind the scenes, the Obama administration has accelerated its efforts to defuse the Chen issue before the arrival of Mrs. Clinton, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and a larger American delegation in Beijing on Wednesday to take part in the policy dialogue, according to officials briefed on the diplomacy.

The State Department dispatched its top Asia envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, to China over the weekend to discuss Mr. Chen's status with Chinese diplomats, according to these officials. Mrs. Clinton led internal policy discussions aimed at finding a way to resolve the emerging crisis.

Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton both appeared Monday to try to ease tensions with Beijing.

"We actually believe China will be stronger as it opens up and liberalizes its own system," Mr. Obama said at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda at the White House. "We want China to be strong, we want it to be prosperous and we are very pleased with all the areas of cooperation that we have been able to engage in."

Experts on China saw two potential ways to resolve the crisis over Mr. Chen. One would be for Beijing to let the blind human-rights lawyer and his family emigrate to the U.S. The other would see Mr. Chen end his apparent stay under U.S. protection in exchange for guarantees from China that he wouldn't be arrested or harassed if he remained inside the country.

But each approach has its obstacles. Friends of Mr. Chen said he didn't want to seek political asylum outside of China. And there are concerns that hard-liners in China's government, already worried about mounting political scandals, could refuse to offer Washington any guarantees on protecting Mr. Chen, out of fear of appearing weak.

U.S.-China relations already have been tested in recent months by a proposed new American arms sale to Taiwan and intensified efforts by Washington to strengthen military alliances with Asian allies, including Japan, the Philippines and Australia.

The Obama administration has also been ensnared in an internal Chinese political row after the police chief of Chongqing briefly sought refuge at the American consulate in Chengdu in February. The official is said to have passed on information about alleged corruption by the powerful Community Party chief of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, who has since been stripped of his titles. Mr. Bo's fall is seen having broad implications for China's political transition this year.

"To me, the worst outcome is that this will play in a way that China won't let us take Chen out of the country, and they won't insure his security," said Kenneth Lieberthal of the Brookings Institution, who was a top Asia policy official under former President Bill Clinton. "Then we have a long-term irritant in U.S-China relations, which is what the Chinese hard-liners want."

Mrs. Clinton's mission to China this week contrasts sharply with her 2009 trip, her first as secretary of state, when she was widely criticized for downplaying the U.S.'s human-rights concerns.

At the time, the Obama administration was largely focused on gaining Beijing's support for ending the global economic crisis and containing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

Since then, Mrs. Clinton has played a leading role in trying to integrate China into international efforts to promote environmental and business standards, as well as to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

But she is taking very public positions aimed at checking Chinese power, particularly in the South China Sea and Africa.

In the process, Mrs. Clinton has emerged as the most influential secretary of state on China in a generation. "It has been almost 20 years since the State Department played such a major role in running China policy," said Mr. Johnson, who is now a China scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Still, a number of China experts said the political scandals engulfing China in recent months could force the Obama administration to significantly rethink its policies toward the country.

Much of the focus, these officials said, has taken for granted Beijing maintaining political unity and cementing itself as a world power. But now there is a growing belief that China could be headed for a growing period of political and economic turmoil.

"U.S. policy has had one go button: dealing with a growing, one-party China," said Daniel Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank. "Clearly the events of the past few months show this might not be the case."

â€"Carol E. Lee and Sudeep Reddy contributed to this article.

Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com

On the Agenda

Additional aims of U.S. officials' visit to Beijing:

Intensify pressure on North Korea to stop possible nuclear test, and on Iranian finances

Weaken China's support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad

Enlist China in establishing peace between the Sudans

Improve U.S. firms' access to Chinese markets, open up China's financial system, which is dominated by state banks

Continue advances in China's currency policy

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